Libya is once again at a crossroads as political factions, international mediators, and regional actors attempt to pave the way for a new, unified government and a revival of the electoral process. Since the start of 2025, diplomatic activity around Libya has intensified, reflecting a renewed push to break the country’s long-standing political deadlock. At the heart of this effort are the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), international envoys, and Libyan stakeholders seeking a compromise on election laws and executive authority.
The recent Cairo meeting between members of the House of Representatives (HoR) and the High Council of State (HCS) marked a new step, with various international actors welcoming its outcomes. However, deep-rooted divisions and conflicting interests continue to cast uncertainty over Libya’s ability to move toward a stable and legitimate political framework.
UNSMIL’s Advisory Committee Formation
On February 4, 2025, UNSMIL announced the creation of an Advisory Committee. This 20-member body, comprising legal and constitutional experts, is tasked with developing “technically sound and politically viable proposals” to resolve contentious issues hindering national elections. The committee’s mandate is time-bound, emphasizing the urgency of its mission to pave the way for democratic processes in Libya.
Diplomatic Engagements and International Support
Since the beginning of 2025, there has been a surge in diplomatic activities aimed at supporting Libya’s political transition. Various ambassadors and special envoys have engaged with Libyan stakeholders, underscoring the international community’s commitment to a peaceful resolution. Notably, the United Nations Security Council convened on February 19, 2025, where Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, highlighted the imperative for Libyan leaders to prioritize national interests over personal gains. She emphasized UNSMIL’s role in reviving the political process and supporting national elections.
Cairo Meeting: A Step Towards New Government
In a significant development, Cairo hosted an expanded consultative meeting from February 11 to 25, 2025, involving 96 members of Libya’s House of Representatives (HoR) and 75 members of the High Council of State (HCS). The discussions focused on advancing the political process, ending institutional divisions, and paving the way for presidential and parliamentary elections. The final communiqué emphasized Libya’s sovereignty over its political processes and the necessity for continued dialogue between the two councils. Participants also agreed to implement the outcomes of the March 2024 tripartite meeting in Cairo, which included restructuring the executive authority.
Challenges and External Influences
Despite these positive strides, challenges persist. Reports have surfaced regarding external pressures influencing Libya’s internal political dynamics. Specifically, members of the HCS have alleged that Egyptian authorities and the HoR exerted pressure to include clauses about government restructuring in the Cairo meeting’s final statement. HCS rapporteur Belgassim Dabrez expressed concerns over such interventions and emphasized the importance of adopting a constitution before upcoming elections.
Perspectives and Hopes
Analysts have observed that while international initiatives aim to resolve Libya’s political impasse, the effectiveness of these efforts depends largely on genuine commitment from Libyan stakeholders. The formation of UNSMIL’s Advisory Committee is seen as a constructive step; however, its success hinges on transparency, inclusivity, and the political will of Libya’s factions to implement its recommendations. Moreover, the dynamics of regional influences, such as Egypt’s involvement, highlight the intricate balance between external support and internal sovereignty.
Libya’s journey toward a unified government and stable executive authority is at a critical juncture. The collaborative efforts of UNSMIL, the active engagement of Libyan political bodies, and the cautious navigation of external influences will collectively determine the nation’s path forward. Ensuring that the political process remains Libyan-led and internationally supported is paramount for achieving lasting peace and stability.
