By Abdullah Alkabir, political writer and commentator
Current developments of the Libyan crisis
There were reports of arrangements for a meeting in Morocco between Mohamed Takala, Head of the High Council of State, and Agila Saleh, Speaker of the House of Representatives. The purpose of the meeting is to resume consultations on controversial issues in election laws and unify the executive authority.
If the meeting is to take place, it will be an indication of the failure of the UN envoy’s initiative, and a return to a futile path with no expected outcome to address the political impasse, and open a path that leads to peaceful elections. The positions are fixed and no change has occurred. Aqila and his deputies declare on all occasions that the laws are ready and do not tolerate any amendment or change, while Takala and the majority of members of the High Council of State reject such laws and call for a reconsideration of the entire path.
More than one member of the High Council of State confirmed that Agila had not yet agreed to meet with Takala, and then stipulated that Cairo, not Morocco, be the venue for the meeting.
In the previous and only meeting between them, they only agreed to continue consultations on the political crisis to reach a Libyan solution that achieves the aspirations and interests of the Libyan people, which is a diplomatic formulation that hides the difference in the agenda of each party. Agila presented the issue of forming a new government by consensus, while Takala stipulated that the points of disagreement in the electoral laws be addressed first, before any consultations on forming a new government.
The recent meetings of the American envoy, Ambassador Norland, with the five parties invited to the Bathily table, do not appear to have succeeded in pushing Agila Saleh and Khalifa Haftar to abandon their conditions for participating in the negotiations. As the mission has not yet commented on the fate of the initiative following Norland’s round, although it is counting on American support to soften the positions of the stubborn parties, to participate in negotiations without preconditions. During the past few days, Bathily met with other active parties in the political, security, and military scene, and it is possible that these meetings will be broadened to include other components, to listen to various opinions and points of view, about the easiest and shortest path to the elections, as if there is an alternative plan in place in case the parties to the five-party table continue to procrastinate.
With this political stagnation, Russia continues to implement the African Legion project, through successive visits conducted to the east of Libya by Yunus Bek Yevkirov, the Russian Deputy Minister of Defense, without any political parties attending these meetings. There is no doubt that the environment of division, political turmoil, and the lack of a legitimate, elected authority is very convenient for Russia to continue its expansion project in Africa by consolidating its presence in Libya, to become a launching pad for the targeted African countries, thus opening another front with the West which can help reduce their pressure on Russia in the Ukraine.
It is unfortunate that the political elites do not feel the danger of playing with the big guys and turning the country into an arena in which they fight and settle their scores.
There does not appear to be any way out of the prevailing stalemate on the horizon, and this conclusion is reinforced by the major powers’ preoccupation with the emerging challenges in the Middle East and Yemen, as well as the conflict in Ukraine. In the face of these inflamed fronts, which establish a new international order whose features have not yet emerged, it appears that the Libyan political stalemate would remain indefinitely.
