By Abdullah Alkabir, political writer and commentator
A budget to consolidate the division
In a recurring pattern, the House of Representatives has once again bypassed both the Constitutional Declaration and the Political Accord, issuing the budget law for 2024. This time, they added approximately 89 billion dinars to the previously decided amount, resulting in a total figure of about 188 billion dinars—the largest budget allocation in the country’s history.
However, the Constitutional Declaration stipulates that the budget law must be approved by 120 representatives. Surprisingly, during the voting session, the number of attendees fell short of fifty. The representatives present evaded answering questions posed by the media, about the number of representatives attending the session.
As usual, the High Council of State, which is based on the Political Accord is the partner of the House of Representatives on budget matters, election laws, sovereign positions, selection of the head of government, and withdrawing the vote of confidence from the government was sidelined once again.
Therefore, it is only natural that the Head of the High Council of State rejects the law and suspends participation in a meeting convened by the Arab League Presidency with the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the Head of the Presidential Council.
Before the House of Representatives session and budget approval, a significant meeting took place in Cairo. Speaker Agila Saleh met with Al-Siddiq Al-Kabir, the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya. Some House members revealed that the governor confirmed the bank’s ability to cover a budget estimated at around 170 billion dinars. This official announcement this week underscores the issue’s prior arrangement over the past two months.
Economists have raised concerns about the budget’s impact on the national economy. With oil revenues as the sole income source and the Libyan dinar’s value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, implementing the budget law with such a substantial amount could lead to inflation, deficits, and a decline in the dinar’s value—especially if global oil prices fall.
Politically, the repercussions are even more severe. The budget will be divided between the two governments. The Tripoli government will handle disbursing salaries and support items due to their data and assets being located in Tripoli’s ministries. Other budget items will be allocated between the two governments, each spending its share in its respective areas of influence.
In such a way, the division has been legitimized with international blessing, because the crisis-involved parties have remained silent with no comment on such developments, despite its escalation of the crisis, and disrupting a political dialogue mediated by the Arab League last March.
As there are no positive signs of elections getting any closer in the foreseeable future, the de facto authorities seem to continue. By easing the intensity of conflict through the sharing of revenues, and satisfaction of each party with their respective gains from the spoils, the divisions could be consolidated leading to complete divisions.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Libya Observer
