By Abdullah Al-Kabir, a Libyan writer
Talking about December elections is no longer about the possible results, and what they can produce of new personalities who are relatively free from the legacy of previous conflicts, and are able to reach an acceptable consensus on all background issues, foremost of which is the draft constitution. The Libyan stubbornness entered the crisis line, and the conflict raged over holding them on time or postponing them, and between holding the presidential elections with the legislative, or limiting them to parliamentary elections only.
The elections would not have been proposed as a solution to the crisis with this momentum, had it not been for the insistence of a group of members of the Political Dialogue Forum to set a date for it on December 24, and the support of the American Embassy and some European countries for it, this is because the effective and influential international powers decided to resort to it to resolve the conflict over legitimacy, and the parties to the local authority acquiesced to this international trend without conviction, and they demand it in every talk, warning of the consequences of postponing it, but in fact they are working by all means to obstruct it because its results are not guaranteed, and the price may be to overthrow it from the party that held it in power, and then lose all the advantages that it enjoys.
It is not expected that the elections, if they take place on their time or at any later date, will bring about a real change that breaks with the previous stage and establishes a new stage in which the country and the people will be helped as long as the political class that managed the political and military scene during the past years, with all its failures, corruption, and external connections, is the one who will decide the rules of the electoral game.
No one looks at this potential change from the angle of vision or the national project against foreign agendas and projects, and thinking about developing short-term plans for urgent problems such as confronting the Coronavirus pandemic, power outages, school disruptions, the cash liquidity crisis, and everything that would alleviate the suffering of people in all the country, as well as laying the correct foundations to address chronic issues such as the proliferation of arms and armed factions, transitional justice, national interests, unification of institutions and the expulsion of mercenaries and foreign forces. Everyone is working to tame the storm of elections, and (if you do not raise one to a higher position, do not overthrow him from his current position at least).
What is the use of elections if they bring back the same personalities, the same entities entrenched behind their personal or regional interests, and responsible for all this devastation? The way to change is to remove the entire political class through free and fair elections that bring in new personalities to run the stage. (The following example is suitable for simplification). What is the first and most important step to save a football team that failed to remain in the first division and was relegated to the lower division? The rescue process usually begins with the dismissal of the coach, the majority of the players and the administrative staff, and their replacement with new faces before proceeding with the development and implementation of the return plan. What if this step is not taken and the losers remain in their positions? The likely is to continue downhill over the seasons until the team settles to the bottom of the lower division.
There is no radical change in the rules of the international game on Libya. The same countries that are involved in the struggle over their interests through local agents are still in the same alignments and orientations, and will stand behind their agents to guarantee them a position in power if elections are held, but if there are any surprises, expected or unexpected, the scenario of questioning its credibility and integrity will be ready. There is no hope for the people to unite and rise to regain the initiative, to overthrow these agents, to decide their fate, and, willingly, to draw a roadmap for their future and the future of future generations, without outside interference.
But even with a weak hope for the results that does not reach the ceiling of ambition, there is no alternative or inevitable for the elections, there is no way to bring about peaceful change without them, and backtracking on them will have dire consequences, as frustration will accumulate and despair will prevail over the people, the opportunity to oblige the current entities to hold elections in the near future may be lost and they are working in every way to avoid them, and then they will continue in their positions indefinitely.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Libya Observer