By Fathi Salem Abuzakhar, a Libyan writer
Turkish-Libyan MoUs between building bridges of interests and ebb of international relations
After repulsing the attack of the war criminal, Khalifa Haftar, his Wagner mercenaries, the Janjaweed, and others, on Tripoli on April 4, 2019, and aborting consensus of almost all Security Council member states, whether by accepting the attack on the capital Tripoli or by their war against the civil state, the free people of February Revolution countered the schemes designed to bring dictatorship back to Libya.
After the US position regarding the Chinese expansion receded, and fear of Russia’s incursion in Libya and its security arrangements with France, the Turkish ally was prompted to intervene militarily in Libya to remove the Russians from the Libyan western region to Sirte.
Turkey, certainly took advantage of its intervention by reviving an old issue that serves its own interests by first concluding a military agreement and accomplishing its dream of demarcating its maritime borders on November 27, 2019. The agreement then was deposited with the United Nations according to international law. Based on that, cooperation, partnership and exchange of interests were reaffirmed by signing another memorandum of understanding on October 3, 2022, for a period of 3 years, on hydrocarbons related to oil and gas exploration, production as well as trade.
The Ukrainian war and rallying of Europe- USA positions:
Certainly, the first beneficiary of the Ukrainian-Russian war is America, and the circumstances of the war remain a conducive factor to unifying the European position, whether negatively or positively.
Importantly, Russia is defending itself by working to bring Europe to its knees, by locking down its oil and gas supplies, to disrupt the latter’s factories and to experience a harsh winter this year, which could trigger a popular discontent and rebellion against policies of their European governments, and the latter’s hostility towards Russia through their position against Russia in this war. Russia’s European agreements as well as its bilateral agreements, whether the military with France or economic with Germany are faltering.
In a televised broadcast, as part of a meeting with teachers, Mr. Vladimir Putin said last Wednesday that Russia had “great respect” for the “Ukrainian people” despite what he called “the current situation.” This may mean an attempt to reduce tension with Ukraine and Europe after the losses suffered by the Russian army, its retreat and the loss of territories that it controlled. With the military losses of the Russian army on the ground, and the deterioration of the logistic supplies, as a result of the destruction of the bridge linking Russia with Crimea, it was clear that the threats to use nuclear weapons were neither real nor serious.
However, the Russian military force can still be able to respond but the strongest card that remains in Putin's hands is to tighten the noose around Europe this winter by cutting off gas and oil supplies. The maintenance work on Nord Stream 1 and the four blasts in the Baltic Sea serve to besiege Germany and Europe and deprive them of energy, regardless of who carried them out, the beneficiaries of this act however, would be Russia and the USA, yet the biggest loser is Europe.
USA and its reluctant partnership with Russia and China:
There were views, on a video of a former American senator, that says until the end of 2021, Mr. Putin tried to reach understandings with NATO on peace, but there was a rejection from the USA, and that the Ukrainian army's advance on Donbas fanned the flames of war, prompting Russia to rush into the furnace of war.
What is happening in the Ukraine war extends beyond its borders. The North Korean move, early October, testing two intercontinental ballistic missiles that passed over Japan was a kind of threat to South Korea and its US ally. Japan annexed Korea as a result of the war of the Soviet Union against Japan during which it occupied Korea after defeating China in 1895-1894 and controlled it for a decade.
It is not possible to separate what is happening today in terms of world domination, and America's attempt to dominate and not share, the world's raw material that run factories, and the energy resources that drive the industrial revolution today from its historical perspective.
Similarly, Libya will be a battleground for America and Russia, which will also be monitored by China. Turkey will play a proactive and dynamic role in a way that serves its own interests as long as they do not contradict with those of the USA, which will only be angered if Israel is annoyed, without paying much attention to Egypt, Greece, or Cyprus.
Europe and the dialectic of gas and oil pricing:
In the midst of this conflict, threats and the show of force, gas prices are sky rocketing, and Russia's supplies to Europe, which amount to 40%, have been reduced. Some European countries, such as Germany, Denmark and Poland, are trying to put a ceiling that might hinder the purchase of what they need of gas, and the fear that placing a gas price ceiling would be tantamount to depriving themselves of it!
It is clear, that the war united Europe against Russia, but their need for Russian energy and gas, could impact and indeed dismantle such unity. The energy problem will create a rift among European ranks, and may even extend the dispute to the USA. So, Mr. Macron could come out and declare the misery of the French people and with an internal discontent, he may wonder how could the USA sell gas to France at four times the market price! American arrogance in the exclusivity of utilitarianism and the absence of the term partnership will sooner or later plunge it into the pitfall of its descent into the abyss.
Turkey on the energy line and the agreement with Libya:
Europe is united in its war against Russia, willingly by some and through coerce by others, or indeed through courtesy by many countries, yet the crisis lingers with the war, and the confusion that Europe is experiencing as a result of the lack of energy, finally opens the door to Turkey’s intervention on the line to sign a memorandum of cooperation on carbohydrates with Libya, disappointing Russia in its bid to tightening the noose around Europe by moving its agents at the lost time; Aqila, Haftar, and Bashagha. Meanwhile, attempts to wrap the noose around Russia's neck continue after part of the supply bridge linking it to the Crimean Island was destroyed. The Libyan proverb says: “Two hits on the head hurt.” The Moskva warship was blasted on April 14, 2022, and on October 9, 2022, Mr. Putin’s birthday, the fortified bridge was blown up, according to the military General Victor Baranich’s statement, the bridge has 17 lines of defense.
Europe is trying to rally together by agreeing that the maritime agreement between Turkey and Libya, which is registered in the United Nations, violates sovereignty of other countries, after it has been rejected by Greece and Cyprus, and was criticized by Israel and France, which is in the far west, and Egypt which joined the cohort, even though it was in its interest.
The writer is not conclusive that the recurring crises may drive Russia to export its problems outside its borders, as it did about the bombing of the bridge and the accusation of a truck owner, although the evidence suggests that the bombing was done by planting explosives under the bridge!
As far as the USA is concerned, after arguing that the text of the agreement was not read, the US State Department rebuffed the agreement without snubbing the Government of National Unity. However, the Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, without paying consideration to the historical neighborhood, and his Greek counterpart, Mr. Nikos Dendias, claimed that the Government of National Unity has lost its legitimacy. The writer believes that the time is right for Turkey to strengthen its cooperation with Libya for the following reasons:
- The noose will be tightened on Putin and he will not find enough time to maneuver outside his borders, and the war calamities are to follow. Although, Russia is still capable of inflicting painful strikes on Ukraine, and this will not provoke any American sympathy, it will be forced to focus on its war in Ukraine, on October 10, 2022 we saw how the Russian bombing expanded to afflict the infrastructure; electricity and water, after being spared at the beginning of the war, as well as the Ukrainian cities of Dnipro, Ternopil, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.
- North Korea's move to test cross-border ballistic missiles will attract America's attention and will ignore Turkey, a NATO member, and its exploration projects in the eastern Mediterranean.
- Libya's maritime interests converge with a country that possesses a military force capable of protecting its interests and its newly drawn maritime borders with Libya.
- China's silence about what is happening in the Ukraine and the absence of any clear position to support Russia, which has contact with Turkey, will strengthen Turkey's position, and Russia with a feeling of losses and isolation, will support Turkey's projects in the eastern Mediterranean.
Conclusion:
Libya should avail of the ebb of international relations, especially between America, Russia and China, and pursue neutrality in its foreign policies, especially with neighbouring countries, to safeguard its interests, and forge partnerships with the super powers that decline to be partners, and it is quite clear that their interests are in conflict today.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Libya Observer
